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The Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders have spent much of the year as two of the AFC’s big surprises. Neither organization has had a winning season since 2016, and both are nurturing young teams who have grown up much faster than expected. Just a few months ago, no one would have bet on either one sitting in playoff contention entering Week 15 of this chaotic COVID-19 NFL season.
But in the past two weeks, all bets are off for the Raiders in Sin City as they’ve struggled to maintain early season momentum. Four losses in five games have dropped them to 7–7 and ninth in the AFC playoff pecking order. Even their lone victory during that stretch, against the 1–13 Jets, needed a little extra help in the form of a bizarre defensive blitz on the final play to open up the deep ball. Starting quarterback Derek Carr is nursing a groin injury, and there’s uncertainty over whether he’ll be able to play.
That creates an opening for the Dolphins to both eliminate their AFC rival and come one step closer to holding that Biggest Surprise title all to themselves. A victory puts them at 10–5 and in position to control their own destiny heading into the season’s final week. But can the Dolphins finally beat a decent team in the AFC? Their only victories against teams with winning records came while playing the NFC West’s Rams (9–5) and Cardinals (8–6). Considering the Rams lost to those 1–13 Jets last week, that takes a little luster off what was a season-best performance at the time.
It also just goes to show you anything can happen in the parity-filled world of the NFL. Can the Raiders pull themselves together and find a way to keep their fading postseason hopes alive? They’ll need to overcome a recent drought, as the Raiders have a 20–18–1 record in this series overall but have lost six of their last seven matchups.
Miami at Las Vegas
Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 26 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
Spread: Dolphins -3
Three Things to Watch
1. Who will start at quarterback for the Raiders?
Chances are increasing Carr will be available to play for the Raiders on Saturday night. After pulling up lame in the first quarter of Thursday’s game with the Chargers, his groin injury is healing faster than expected, and the quarterback was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice.
That said, Marcus Mariota proved more than capable in a fill-in role; after all, he’s the NFL’s highest-paid backup at $7.5 million. Mariota showed flashes of brilliance, rushing for 88 yards on nine carries and a touchdown in his first in-game action of 2020. Mariota made some deep throws, too, although a costly fourth-quarter interception nearly cost his team the game against the Chargers. (Las Vegas lost anyway, 30–27 in OT).
Whoever starts needs to take care of the football; a Raiders quarterback has thrown a pick in five straight games. Five of Carr’s seven interceptions on the year have come during this recent 1–4 Raiders skid along with six of his 20 sacks. It’s been ugly, indeed, for a team whose turnover margin has slumped to -6, tied for 25th in the league and the worst for any organization with a .500 record or better.
2. Can the Dolphins’ defense keep rolling?
In some categories, the Dolphins defense seems like they’re middle of the pack: ranked 18th overall, 19th against the run, and 18th against the pass. But it’s their ability to make the difference in key moments that stands out. Their 26 takeaways lead the NFL, a perfect recipe for the slumping Raiders; nine of those have come in the last four games. Just two weeks ago, the Dolphins’ scheme forced leading NFL MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes into three interceptions (he’s got just five total on the year).
The Dolphins also lead the NFL in third-down conversion rate allowed (32.63 percent). It’s an underrated stat, limiting the ability of teams to sustain momentum after just two bad plays. The Raiders happen to be second in this category on offense (49.14 percent) although the team has struggled in recent weeks; they were a ho-hum 5-for-13 in Thursday’s loss.
All of that adds up to one of the NFL’s most stunning turnarounds. Fresh off allowing an NFL-worst 494 points last season, a franchise record, the Dolphins now lead in that category through 15 weeks (18.4 points allowed). In their last four games, they’ve allowed a total of one touchdown to three of those opponents (Jets, Bengals, Patriots) while giving Kansas City a run for their money.
3. Can Tua finally take it to the next level against a weaker defense?
Eight games into the Tua Tagovailoa starting quarterback experiment, the rookie is still finding his footing inside the NFL. In need of a better supporting cast, he’s thrown for over 300 yards just once (two weeks ago against Kansas City) and is averaging a middling 6.47 yards per pass attempt. Most numbers are on par with, and in some cases, slightly below the man he replaced in Ryan Fitzpatrick.
The Raiders defense though offers an opportunity for a breakthrough. Two weeks ago, defensive coordinator Paul Guenther was fired after a 44–27 thumping by the Colts and little seemed to improve against the Chargers. They’ve given up an average of 36.0 points during their five-game streak and have sacked the quarterback just five times.
Limited pressure against Tua should help. The likely return of players such as leading rusher Myles Gaskin (COVID-19), wide receiver Devante Parker (hamstring), and tight end Mike Gesicki (shoulder) puts the Dolphins at near-maximum offensive output. Tua just needs to get them the football in what could be the first-ever NFL matchup between Hawaiian quarterbacks if Mariota starts.
Our playoffs are this week against the Raiders,” Dolphins Head Coach Brian Flores said. “That’s my — let’s call it the playoffs, this week against the Raiders. Let’s call it that. It’s one game at a time. That’s kind of where my focus is. That’s where we’ll try to direct their focus. If they’re talking about anything else, it’s about the Raiders. It’s one game. It’s a one game season. Let’s call it a one game playoff season.”
The Dolphins understand the gravity of this game. An impressive 9–5 start to the season makes for meaningful football in December as the Dolphins can force a ‘win-and-in’ scenario in Week 17 with a victory Saturday in Las Vegas.
The Raiders’ quick, controlled passing game paired with a bruising running game makes for an interesting matchup against a Dolphins defense that ratchets up the heat on opposing quarterbacks and produces takeaways at the highest rate in the NFL.
We’ll take a look at the latest injury report, key matchups to watch, the Raiders tendencies and the game notes to know ahead of Saturday’s kickoff in this Week 16 preview.
The Miami Dolphins head to Nevada this weekend for a Saturday night primetime meeting with the Las Vegas Raiders. The game is a must-win contest for Miami, who is looking to remain in position to make the postseason for the first time since 2016, giving them the potential for their first playoff win since 2000. The Dolphins head into the game in a fairly healthy manner, especially considering the injury struggles the team had last week.
The Dolphins activated running back Myles Gaskin earlier in the week, giving them back their full complement of running backs.
The only player who has been ruled out of the game for Miami is guard Solomon Kindley, who is dealing with a knee and foot issue. Miami listed guard Ereck Flowers (ankle), tight end Mike Gesicki (shoulder), wide receiver Jakeem Grant (shoulder), defensive end Shaq Lawson (shoulder), and wide receiver DeVante Parker (hamstring) as questionable for the game. With Parker, Grant, Gesicki, Gaskin, and Preston Williams (currently on injured reserve with a foot injury) all missing last week, the team played without their top-five players in terms of receptions on the year. The return of some, most, or all of them (other than Williams who has not been activated from IR yet), will be a huge boost for the offense.
Also listed on the injury report, but cleared for the game, are linebacker Jerome Baker (knee), safety Clayton Fejedelem (non-injury/thumb), safety Kavon Frazier (shoulder), cornerback Xavien Howard (shoulder), safety Bobby McCain (ankle), and linebacker Kyle Van Noy (hip).
On the Raiders’ side of the injury report, defensive end Clelin Ferrell was ruled out of the game. Ferrell has started 11 games this year for Las Vegas, recording 27 tackles, two sacks, three passes defended, and two forced fumbles.
The Raiders listed defensive tackle Maurice Hurst as questionable with a calf injury. The rest of the injury report, including linebacker Nicholas Morrow (concussion/neck), center Rodney Hudson (knee/back), guard Gabe Jackson (knee), tackle Sam Young (knee), safety Johnathan Abram (concussion/knee), cornerback Damon Arnette (concussion/neck), kicker Daniel Carlson (left ankle), quarterback Derek Carr (groin), defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins (non-injury), fullback Alec Ingold (knee), running back Josh Jacobs (knee), cornerback Isaiah Johnson (back), linebacker Raekwon McMillan (elbow), wide receiver Hunter Renfrow (concussion), running back Jalen Richard (chest), and defensive end Carl Nassib (non-injury) on the report, but appear available for the game. Carr’s availability comes as a surprise as the groin injury appear severe enough that Marcus Mariota would have to start.
Since the injury report was released, Morrow was added to the reserve/COVID-19 list, joining linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski. McMillan, the former second-round draft choice of the Dolphins in 2017, could see extended playing time.
As Bill Williamson from SB Nation’s Raiders site Silver and Black Pride wrote on Thursday, “Las Vegas Raiders coach Jon Gruden said Friday he is ‘optimistic’ quarterback Derek Carr will be ready to play Saturday at home against the Miami Dolphins. Gruden said he ‘doesn’t want to let the cat out of the bag,’ though.” Mariota could still play with Carr as the backup if needed, but Carr seems to be attempting to be ready for the game.
Miami and Las Vegas kickoff at 8:15pm ET on Saturday.
